Hear me out!

I know I’m not a well-regarded political pundit who has his pulse on the issues of the day. I don’t have the substantive legal insights of Dan Abrams or the sharp analytic mind of Chris Cillizza. But I believe my opinion has value and I would like to humbly offer my thoughts on a recent issue.

 

I believe the FBI’s investigation of Donald Trump for espionage may not help—and in fact, may hurt—Trump’s presidential reelection prospects in 2024.

 

I know that sounds ridiculous but hear me out! Many pundits are saying variations on the theme of “The FBI just handed Trump the 2024 election.” I’m going to think outside the box and say it might be a drag on the Republican ticket that their presidential candidate is under suspicion of stealing top secret special access nuclear materials for God knows what purpose. This flies in the face of all conventional wisdom, which says federal criminal investigations help presidential candidates, but I am going to challenge the conventional wisdom here. The truth is, many people disapprove of espionage and may not look fondly on a candidate who is credibly accused of it. Stranger things have happened!

 

I’m going to go even further out on a limb and say that if Trump is charged with violating the Espionage Act, there’s a chance it might not win over any undecided voters to his side, and may not win back any voters who had soured on him. I realize I’m opining at the very farthest frontier of American political thought, but I suspect there isn’t a coalition of voters out there who are saying, “Gee, I was kind of tired of Trump and ready to support another candidate, but those allegations of light treason really rallied me to his side.”

 

Here's another crazy theory from my dopey mind: Trump may not actually be as popular as people think. He did lose the popular vote twice, and his approval rating was always low. (Although as the media has taught us, a 40% approval rating for Trump can only spell triumph, while a 40% Biden approval rating means electoral doom forever. This is known as the “Democrats in Disarray” curve.) I’m coming out of left field to say that maybe all those boat parades and “Let’s Go Brandon” flags are from people who may be very loud but don’t actually get more than one vote each, so maybe the former president’s electoral support is not quite at Kim Jong-un levels.

 

I know, I know—Trump once said he could “shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and not lose any votes.” And he does seem to escape trouble a lot. But my wacky theory is that this colorful brag isn’t some immutable law of thermodynamics. It actually might have limits, believe it or not, and that limit might be keeping SCIF material in an unlocked storage room in the hallway near the pool at a golf club.

 

I may be proven wrong, as there is plenty we don’t know yet. But many people do take a dim view of selling state secrets, and I’m putting my credibility on the line to say that might be in the “con” column for a presidential candidate.