Brian's Oscar Predictions*

Supporting Actor

Will Win/Should Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. In a year with so many tossups, veteran Rockwell is the surest bet.

Supporting Actress

Will Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird. The only thing Oscar loves more than an ingénue is a true veteran who has polished her craft.

Should Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya. It’s a long way from The West Wing to the skating rinks of Oregon. Longer than you think.

Lead Actor

Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour. Will this likable actor finally win Oscar gold? As his character Winston Churchill said, “Never give up. Never never never.” (etc.)

Should Win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name. Chalamet gave one of the most emotionally resonant performances of this or any year.

Lead Actress

Will Win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird. #MeToo is having a Moment. Look for Ronan to have hers.

Should Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. She’s come a long way from Fargo, but not that far, and should repeat her triumph from 20 years ago.

Director

Will Win: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird. What a year for women it’s been. What a year indeed.

Should Win: Jordan Peele, Get Out. It’s a horror movie, but it’s also a reflection of our entire society.

Best Picture

Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Three billboards=third’s time’s the charm for this movie, which has already swept at least two awards ceremonies.

Should Win: Darkest Hour. With strong nominees, this race seems wide open for the first time in years. Is Darkest Hour a dark horse in this category? (No.)

* I did not see any of the nominated movies.